美国对华贸易逆差影响因素研究：美国侧的视角

Study on the Factors Affecting US Trade Deficit with China: From the Perspective of the US Side

摘要: 2018年美国宣布考虑对中国超过500亿美元的出口商品征收25%关税，其构筑关税壁垒的起因之一就是美国对华贸易的巨额逆差。与责难中国的原因不同，本文从美国一侧的角度，探索了影响美国对华贸易逆差的因素。在此基础上，建立了美国对华贸易逆差的线性回归解释模型，采用计量经济学软件包Eviews对所选模型进行了多重共线性检验、异方差检验、自相关性检验及相关处理，并对修正后的模型使用已有数据进行预测，在与已有结果比较后发现模型具有较好的解释力。研究发现，美国对华服务贸易年平衡和上一期美国对华商品及服务贸易年逆差对于被解释变量即美国对华商品及服务贸易年逆差产生负向作用，而美国年国民收入总和、美国每年国民储蓄占国民收入百分比、美国政府年经常支出都对美国对华商品及服务贸易年逆差产生正向作用。论文对上述五个影响因素进行了分析和讨论。

Abstract: In 2018, the United States announced that it would consider a 25% tariff on China’s exports of more than $50 billion. One of the reasons for its construction of tariff barriers is the huge deficit of US trade with China. Unlike the factors that come down to China, this paper explores the factors affecting the US trade deficit with China from the perspective of the US side. This paper first estab-lishes a linear regression model for the US trade deficit with China, and uses the econometric software package Eviews to carry out multiple collinearity test, heteroscedasticity test, autocor-relation test and related processing to the selected model, and uses the existing data to predict with the revised model, and finds that the revised model has a better explanation power. The study finds that both the annual balance of US service trade to China and the annual deficit of US trade in goods and services in the last year have negative effects on the annual deficit of the US trade deficit with China, while the total annual national income of US, the percentage of national savings in US and the annual expenditure of the US government have positive effects on the US deficit in the trade with China. The above five factors are analyzed and discussed in this paper.