剥离“线损电量”的工业用电量统计方法研究——解析工业用电与增加值增速偏离之谜

Research on the Statistical Method of the Industrial Electricity Consumption Excluding Line Loss —Resolving Puzzle of the Deviation Relationship between the Growth Rate of Electricity Consumption of Industry and the Industrial Value-Added

摘要: 本文通过分析“线路损失电量”的“内涵”，发现在降(升)温负荷出现明显变化的月份，线路损失电量会因服务业和居民部门“供售电量抄表不同期”出现剧烈波动，导致工业用电与工业增加值增速发生偏离。为更好地发挥工业用电量作为经济“晴雨表”的作用，本文利用定性和定量分析相结合方法，分析了气温对“线损电量”和工业用电量的影响。研究结果表明：1) 温度负荷与“线损电量”之间存在显著的相关性；2) 剥离“线损电量”的工业用电量增速与工业增加值增速变化一致；3) 提出了将工业用电量分离为“经济电量”和“温度电量”的核算方法。

Abstract: Based on the analysis of the intension meaning of line loss, this paper finds that the line loss will appear violent fluctuations with the temperature severe change, because of the supply and sale of electricity meter reading cycle of resident sector and territory industry difference. In order to make full use of the economic barometer of the consumption of electricity of industry, the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis is employed in this paper. Moreover, the impact of temperature on the electricity of line loss and the industry is calculated. The results of this paper are as follows: 1) there is a notable positive correlation between temperature load and line loss; 2) the deviation relationship between the growth rate of electricity consumption of industry and the industrial value-added almost entirely disappears, when the line loss is eliminated from the elec-tricity consumption of industry; 3) a new statistical method is established in this paper, i.e. sepa-rating the industrial electricity consumption into “economic power” part and “temperature power” part.