水文系列插补延长均化处理验证及应用

Processing and Assessing Homogenized Interpolation and Prolongation of Hydrologic Series

摘要: 通过线性相关分析把设计站水文短系列插补延长为长系列后，长系列被均化、离散系数Cv值变小、不能完整反映实际水文特征，这是工程水文分析存在的不足。本文考虑在线性相关的基础上，以正态分布特性反映相关数据点群偏离(偏值)线性相关线近者密、远者疏的通常特点，在线性相关方程中考虑偏值项，偏值反映出相关分析的两个站流域内降水场次大小不一、时空分布不均以及下垫面条件差异等因素造成的对应关系的偏离。解决了线性相关插补延长分析多年来存在的缺陷，使插补延长系列较好地反映实际水文特征。

Abstract: In the actual work of hydrological analysis, the long series are homogenized and the value of coefficient of variability is decreased after hydrologic short series of design station are interpolated and prolonged into long series via linear correlation analysis, which cannot reflect the hydrologic characteristics in its entirety. This is a deficiency of engineering hydrology analysis in practice. On the basis of linear correlation, the character of normal distribution which reflects relevant data’s deviation from correlation line is used, the closer the denser and the further scatter. The deviation is included in the linear correlation equation, and the deviation reflects congruent relationship diverging between two hydrologic station’s drainage area with different rainfalls and underlying surface conditions when utilizing correlation analysis, which fixes the defect of interpolation and prolongation of linear correlation analysis that has long existed and makes interpolated and prolonged series be closer to reflection of the actual hydrologic characteristics.