能源消费、技术进步、经济增长对二氧化碳的动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of Carbon Dioxide by Energy Consumption, Technological Progress and Economic Growth

摘要: 本文利用1999~2015年的30个省市的GDP、能源消费、技术水平及CO2数据，使用面板VAR模型探讨他们之间的动态关系。结果显示：能源消耗强度的增加促进二氧化碳排放量、经济增长的上升；二氧化碳排放量的升高促进经济增长、能源消耗的增长；技术进步的提高抑制了二氧化碳、能源消耗的增长，而与经济增长之间的关系不是很明显；经济增长的升高使得能源消耗、二氧化碳和技术进步都有所提高。

Abstract: This paper uses the GDP, energy consumption, technological level and CO2 data of 30 provinces and cities from 1999 to 2015 to explore the dynamic relationship between them using panel VAR model. The results show that: the increase in energy intensity promotes the increase of carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth; the increase in carbon dioxide emissions promotes economic growth and energy consumption; the improvement of technological progress inhibits the growth of carbon dioxide and energy consumption, and the relationship between them is not very obvious; the increase in economic growth has increased energy consumption, carbon dioxide, and technological progress.