部分线性矩在黔南部地区洪水频率分析中的应用

The Application of Partial L-Moments for Flood Frequency Analysis in the South of Guizhou

摘要: 黔南部地区洪水灾害严重且频繁，研究部分线性矩在该区洪水频率分析中的应用，为该区的水利防洪工程设计建设提供可靠的理论依据。本文在介绍部分线性矩原理的基础上，选取黔南部八茂、高车、惠水、贵阳、荔波、草坪头及把本7个水文站的洪峰流量资料，选用广义极值分布，将部分线性矩应用于黔南部地区洪水序列参数估计中，计算设计洪水值，并拟合洪水频率曲线，利用累积相对偏差平方和评价所得洪水频率曲线对洪峰序列的拟合效果，并与普通线性矩法的拟合成果进行比较分析。利用部分线性矩和普通线性矩对黔南部地区7个水文站洪水进行的分析表明：除了高车和草坪头站外，随着删失值F0的增大，设计值的相对偏差值越小，说明部分线性矩法对高尾部经验点据拟合效果更好，提高了大重现期设计值估算精度。因此，是一种合理有效的洪水频率分析参数估计方法，可用于黔南部地区的洪水频率计算。

Abstract: The south of Guizhou province suffers serious and frequent flood disasters. In order to provide an effi-cient and reliable theoretical basis for design of the flood control project in this area, the Partial L-moments are applied at the Bamao, Gaoche, Huishui, Guiyang, Libo, Caopingtou and Baben stations for flood frequency analysis. By estimating the parameters of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and matching Partial L-Moments to annual maximum flow series of 7 hydrological stations, the design flood is calculated and the flood frequency curve is fitted. The cumulative squares error is used to evaluate the fitting ability of Partial L-moments and L-moments. The results show that as censored level F0 value increases, the relative deviation of the design value is smaller, except the hydrological stations of Gaoche and Caopingtou. Partial L-Moments can describe the data better in flood analysis and improve the estimation precision of design flood. Partial L-moments is a reasonable and effective method of flood frequency analysis in the south of Guizhou province.