T639数值预报产品在克州地区大降水中的检验及应用

Test and Application of T639 Numerical Forecast Product in the Large Precipitation in Basque Region

摘要: 采用2011~2012年克州境内出现的11次大降水天气个例，利用T639 24~72 h数值模式预报产品与地面、高空实况图、地面逐日降水量资料对比检验分析，得出T63924 h高度场数值预报准确率较高，能较好的刻画欧亚中高纬环流变化和调整趋势，而T639海平面气压场对蒙古冷高压的预报，24~72 h预报场基本接近零场，但强度总体偏弱，位置、范围要偏小，对中亚一带的小高压活动24~72 h预报场较实况场有些偏差。从T639模式降水预报对克州大降水的预报检验来看，降水强度较实况略偏弱，降水落区范围偏大，但对大降水起始时间、降水落区预报有较好的参考价值。同时T639模式预报场的物理量因子对克州的大降水预报也有一定的参考价值，比湿、t-td、水汽通量等预报因子对克州大降水预报有很好的指示意义。

Abstract: Using the 11 large precipitation weather individual cases of Kezhou area from 2011 to 2012, the T63924 - 72 h numerical model forecast product, the ground and high altitude live diagram and the data of the ground daily rainfall are analysed by contrast testing. It is concluded that the forecast accuracy about the T63924h numerical value of the height field is high, and it can better depict about the Eurasian circulation change and the trend of adjustment. The forecast of the T639 Mongolia cold high pressure about the sea level pressure field and the 24 - 72 h prediction field are basically closed to the zero field, but the intensity is overall weak, the location and the range are relatively smaller. The small high pressure activity of the central Asia area and the 24 - 72 h forecast field are compared with the reality field, and some deviation will be produced. Based on the forecast testing of T639 model precipitation forecast about Kezhou large precipitation, the precipitation in-tensity is live slightly weaker than the reality, the dropzone of the precipitation is bigger, but it has good reference value for the large precipitation starting time, and the dropzone of the precipitation forecast. Meanwhile, the quantity factor of T639 model forecast has certain reference value to Kezhou large precipitation forecast, and the forecast factors such as specific humidity, t-td, vapor flux etc. have good instruction significance to Kezhou large precipitation forecast.