基于VAR模型经济增长、产业结构与环境污染关系的实证研究—以云南省为例

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Economic Growth, Industrial Structure and Environmental Pollution Based on VAR Model—Take Yunnan Province as an Example

摘要: 本文选取1997~2016年云南省人均GDP、第三产业占GDP比重和衡量环境污染程度的各项指标，构建有关经济增长、产业结构、环境污染的VAR模型。结论表明：1) 经济增长、产业结构与度量环境污染的程度的各项指标存在协整关系。2) “倒U型”环境的库兹涅茨曲线是否成立依赖于所选地区的数据和所选取的环境污染指标的不同。3) 经济增长在环境污染度量指标的波动中占主体地位。4) 云南省现有的环境污染问题会抑制经济的增长，且伴随经济增长所产生的环境问题主要是工业废气的排放。

Abstract: This paper selects various indicators of Yunnan province’s per capita GDP, the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP and the assessment of environmental pollution degree from 1997 to 2016, and constructs VAR models related to economic growth, industrial structure and environmental pollution. Conclusion: 1) There is a co-integration relationship between economic growth, industrial structure and various indicators measuring the degree of environmental pollution. 2) Whether the Kuznets curve of “inverted u-shaped” environment is established depends on the difference between the data of the selected area and the selected environmental pollution indicators. 3) Economic growth plays a dominant role in the fluctuation of environmental pollution measurement indicators. 4) Existing environmental pollution problem households in Yunnan province restrain economic growth, and the environmental problem caused by economic growth is mainly the emission of industrial waste gas.