能源消耗、经济增长和碳排放之间的实证分析——以中部八省为例

Empirical Analysis among Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions—Taking the Eight Provinces in Central China for Example

摘要: 在经济不断发展的过程中，能源扮演着非常重要的角色。在这个过程中，能源一方面对经济发展起着促进作用，一方面也对环境产生了负面的影响。本篇文章通过构建协整性与格兰杰因果关系检验模型来对中部八省能源消耗、二氧化碳排放量与经济增长的时间序列进行定量分析，发现三者之间两两存在着长期的协整性，并且存在着单向的从能源消耗、二氧化碳排放量到经济增长的因果关系。

Abstract: With the increasingly development of economy, energy plays an important role. In this process, energy, on the one hand, has promoted economic development; on the other hand, it has also had a negative impact on the environment. This article by building a model of co-integration and Granger causality test of eight provinces in central China analyzed energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth of quantitative analysis of time series, and found that comparison between any means is a long-term co-integration. In addition, there is a unidirectional carbon dioxide emission from energy consumption to economic growth of a causal relationship.