中巴开展粮食贸易的潜能分析—以玉米为例

Potential Analysis of Food Trade between China and Brazil—Taking Corn Trade as an Example

摘要: 结合巴西玉米产业发展现状，利用IMS、RCA及TC三大指数对1992年以来中巴玉米产业国际市场竞争力进行比较分析，结果表明在中国玉米国际竞争力呈现“降→升→降”震荡趋势的同时，巴西玉米出口竞争力正稳步增强；在此基础上，运用SWOT分析模型分析了巴西对华出口玉米在产业资源、互补性等方面的优势和农业基础设施建设方面的劣势，并发现中巴玉米贸易是破除对美进口依赖、拓宽双边农产品贸易合作的机遇，而中巴玉米贸易也面临着贸易摩擦、转基因争议等方面的威胁。进一步提出要充分挖掘巴西玉米出口潜力、推进我国玉米进口多元化，以玉米贸易为契机、拓宽双边农产品贸易与投资领域，强化巴西进口农产品检测检疫规范性、确保对巴出口农产品的质量安全等保障措施。

Abstract: The Brazilian market is very important to China’s corn imports. Firstly, this paper illustrated the development present situation of Brazil corn industry. Secondly, we used IMS, RCA and TC index to do a comparative study on the international market competitiveness of corn industry between China and Pakistan since 1992. The research results showed that China’s corn international competitiveness had a volatility trend of “From down to up, and then decline”, while the corn export com-petitiveness had been a steady increase in Brazil. Then, we carried out the SWOT analysis of corn trade interaction between China and Brazil. The analysis focused on the advantages of corn industry resources and complementary characteristics of agricultural products, and the disadvantages of agricultural infrastructure construction in Brazil. At the same time, it also analyzed the opportunity of corn trade and discussed the possible threat between China and Brazil. At the end of the article, we put forward a series of Suggestions, such as, fully tapping Brazil corn export potential to promote China’s imports diversification; broadening the bilateral agricultural products trade and investment, with corn trade as an opportunity; strengthening the standardization of Brazilian import inspection and quarantine of agricultural products and ensuring the safety of export agricultural products.