十堰市近50年高温特征分析与突变研究

Research on Characteristic and Abrupt Change of Maximum Temperature in Shiyan in Recent 50 Years

摘要: 选取十堰地区7个国家气象站1963~2013年逐日高温资料，采用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析等方法，分析了近50年十堰地区高温变化特征。结果表明：十堰地区高温日数震荡较大，年际变化线性不显著，基本呈“先减后增”趋势，80年代达到最低值，竹山为高温多发区；地域上北部高温日数多于南部，南部差异较大。极端高温主要集中在37℃~40℃之间，平均最高气温以0.205℃/10 a速率增长，郧西对十堰地区高温增长贡献最大。高温序列存在3~4 a、10 a、36~38 a周期；冷暖期交替出现，1994年为偏冷期向偏暖期变化的拐点，目前正处于显著偏暖的通道中。

Abstract: On basis of the daily maximum temperature data of 7 national meteorological stations in Shiyan selected from 1963 to 2013, change characteristics of maximum temperature were analyzed by using trend analysis, Mann-Kendall abrupt change test and wavelet analysis. The results showed that: the oscillation of maximum temperature days in Shiyan is much larger; the linear change of inter-annual is not significant; the trend appears increase first and then decrease, and has reached the minimum value in 80’s; the prone area of maximum temperature is in Zhushan; the maximum temperature days in north are much more than the south geographically; the difference in south is big; the extreme maximum temperature has the most frequency between 37˚C and 40˚C; the daily average maximum temperature increases with a rate of 0.205˚C/10 a; Yunxi has the greatest contribution to the increase of Shiyan; the maximum temperature periodicity is obvious as 3 - 4 years, 10 years and 36 - 38 years; the colder and warmer period has appeared alternately; the inflection point appeared in 1994 when the warmer period turned to the colder period. This is a significantly warmer aisle in the present.