关于影响人民币国际储备地位主要因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Determinants of the International Reserve Status of RMB

摘要: 本文先对人民币的现状进行基本面分析，分别从经济实力，币值内外稳定性，国际贸易实力，外汇储备情况，金融市场发展状况等五个方面对其进行分析。其次剖析从2000年至2015年这16年期间人民币的相关数据，通过SPSS软件的回归分析处理国内生产总值，净出口占世界净出口总额比重，对外直接投资占国内生产总值的比重等8个指标，阐明了决定一国货币国际储备货币份额的影响因素，再者借助时间序列法的指数平滑法模型对人民币2018，2019，2020年的国际化程度进行预测，并对此情况具体提出相关建议措施。

Abstract: This paper analyzes the current situation of the RMB, respectively from five aspects: economic strength, internal and external currency stability, international trade strength, foreign exchange reserves, and financial market development, and the determining factors that affect the share of the international reserve currency by employing regression analysis of the SPSS software, which use data including eight indexes during the year of 2000 to the year of 2015 RMB. Using time series model to predict the internationalization of the RMB on the year of 2018, 2019 and 2020, We get the empirical conclusion of the determining factors on the development of the status of RMB and put forward related suggestions to this specific situation.