基于幂函数的输变电设施可靠性预测模型研究
Research on Reliability Prediction Models Based on Power Function of Transmission and Transformation Facilities
DOI: 10.12677/JEE.2018.63029, PDF,   
作者: 史 清：国网上海市电力公司检修公司，上海；赵 彬：国网上海市电力公司市北供电公司，上海
关键词: 输变电设施；可靠性；可靠性预测模型；Transmission and Transformation Facilities； Reliability； Reliability Prediction Model
摘要: 本文以220 kV和500 kV电压等级的变压器、断路器、避雷器与电流互感器为研究对象，基于现有可靠性统计数据，建立输变电设施检修系数为幂函数的可靠性预测模型，给出全国220 kV和500 kV等2个电压等级的变压器、断路器、避雷器和电流互感器等4类输变电设施的可靠性统计结果、可靠性预测模型的待定参数计算与可靠性预测模型的统计检验结果。结果表明：输变电设施检修系数为幂函数的可靠性预测模型符合国内220 kV和500 kV等2个电压等级的变压器、断路器、避雷器和电流互感器等4类输变电设施的可靠性变化规律。
Abstract: 220 kV and 500 kV transformers, circuit breakers, arresters and current transformers are taken as research objects in this paper. Based on the historical operation reliability data, reliability pre-diction models of maintenance factor based on power function of transmission and transformation facilities are established. The reliability statistical results of transmission and transformation facilities, such as 220 kV and 500 kV transformers, circuit breakers, arresters and current transformers in China, calculations of undetermined parameters and statistical check results of reliability prediction models are given. The results show that reliability prediction models of maintenance factor based on power function of transmission and transformation facilities are conformed to the change laws of reliability, such as 220 kV and 500 kV transformers, circuit breakers, arresters and current transformers in China.
文章引用：史清, 赵彬. 基于幂函数的输变电设施可靠性预测模型研究[J]. 电气工程, 2018, 6(3): 245-255. https://doi.org/10.12677/JEE.2018.63029

参考文献

[1] IEEE Power Systems Engineering Committee (2008) IEEE Std 859TM-1987 (R2008). IEEE Standard Terms for Re-porting and Analyzing Outage Occurrences and Outage States Electrical Transmission Facilities. IEEE Standards Board, New York.
[2] Transmission Availability Data System Task Force (2007) Transmission Availability Data System Revised Final Report. NERC Planning Committee, Brattleboro, VT, USA.
[3] Transmission Availability Data System Task Force for the NERC Planning Committee (2008) Transmission Availability Data System Phase II Final Report. NERC Planning Committee, Brattleboro, VT, USA.
[4] 国家能源局. DL/T 837-2012. 输变电设施可靠性评价规程[S]. 北京: 中国电力出版社, 2012.
[5] 陈丽娟, 蒋锦峰, 赵凯, 等. 2002年全国220kV及以上电压等级输变电设施可靠性分析报告(上) [J]. 电力设备, 2004, 5(2): 60-66.
[6] 陈丽娟, 蒋锦峰, 赵凯, 等 2002年全国220kV及以上电压等级输变电设施可靠性分析报告(下) [J]. 电力设备, 2004, 5(3): 64-69.
[7] 贾立雄, 陈丽娟, 胡小正. 2006年全国输变电设施和城市用户供电可靠性分析[J]. 中国电力, 2007, 40(5): 1-7.
[8] 陈丽娟, 贾立雄, 胡小正. 2007年全国输变电设施和城市用户供电可靠性分析[J]. 中国电力, 2008, 41(5): 1-8.
[9] 陈丽娟, 胡小正. 2008年全国输变电设施可靠性分析[J]. 中国电力, 2009, 42(5): 1-6.
[10] 陈丽娟, 胡小正. 2009年全国输变电设施可靠性分析[J]. 中国电力, 2010, 43(5): 1-6.
[11] 陈丽娟, 胡小正. 2010年全国输变电设施可靠性分析[J]. 中国电力, 2011, 44(11): 71-77.
[12] 陈丽娟, 李霞. 2011年全国输变电设施可靠性分析[J]. 中国电力, 2012, 45(7): 89-93.
[13] 史清. 大型电力变压器可靠性增长模型研究[J]. 上海电力学院学报, 2007, 23(2): 105-108.
[14] 方开泰, 全辉, 陈庆云. 实用回归分析[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1988.
[15] 茆诗松, 王玲玲. 可靠性统计[M]. 上海: 华东师范大学出版社, 1984.
[16] 电力可靠性管理中心. 2003-2012电力可靠性指标发布报告[R]. 北京: 中国电力企业联合会, 2012.