基于多项式的供电系统可靠性增长模型研究

Research on Reliability Growth Models Based on Polynomial of Power Supply System

摘要: 本文提出了供电系统可靠性基于多项式的可靠性增长模型和验证方法，介绍了供电系统用户供电可靠率的统计公式和用户停电系数的计算公式；应用多项式拟合建模以及拟合检验方法，建立供电系统的基于多项式的供电可靠率以及用户停电系数的增长模型；在分析供电可靠率统计数据基础上，采用柱形图分析了全国城市10 kV与国家电网公司及其下属区域电网城市10 kV供电系统的供电可靠率的逐年变化趋势；给出了全国城市10 kV与国家电网公司及其下属区域电网城市10 kV供电系统的用户停电系数的计算结果以及供电可靠率和用户停电系数增长模型待定参数计算与拟合检验结果。结果表明，城市10 kV供电系统的用户停电系数呈下降趋势、供电可靠率呈增长趋势，全国城市10 kV与国家电网公司及其下属区域电网城市10 kV的供电可靠率与用户停电系数的变化规律符合基于多项式的可靠性增长模型。

Abstract: This paper proposes a reliability growth model and verification method based on polynomial for power system reliability. The statistical formula of the power supply reliability rate of the power supply system and the calculation formula of the customer interruption coefficient are introduced. We applying polynomial fitting modeling and fitting test method to establish a polynomial-based power supply reliability rate and customer interruption coefficient growth models for power supply system. Based on the analysis of power supply reliability statistics, the column graph is used to analyze the year-on-year change trend of power supply reliability rate for State Grid and its subordinate regional power grid city 10 kV power supply system. The calculation results of the customer interruption coefficient for State Grid and its subordinate regional power grid city 10 kV power supply system, and the pending parameter calculation and fitting test results for power supply reliability rate and customer interruption coefficient growth model are given in this paper. The results show that the power failure factor of users in urban 10 kV power supply system is decreasing, and the reliability of power supply is increasing. The variation law of power supply reliability rate and customer interruption coefficient is in accordance with the reliability growth model based on polynomial.