我国城镇居民养老保险支出预测分析—基于灰色GM(1,1)模型

Forecast Analysis of Urban Residents’ Endowment Insurance Expenditure in China—Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 随着科技与医疗技术的发展，人们整体的寿命延长，因此对于养老保险基金带来了极大的挑战。因此，精准的对我国城镇居民的养老保险进行预测分析，可以为今后养老保险系统后续研究打下基础。本文采用2010~2014年老年人口及抚养率数据，首先对于我国整体老年人口进行了描述性分析；其次，采用灰色GM(1,1)模型对于居民养老保险支出做出预测分析。结果表明：我国已经呈现出了老龄化趋势；对于养老保险支出呈现的是逐年上升态势；因此政府应针对相关问题进行政策的调整与完善。

Abstract: With the development of science and technology and medical technology, people’s overall life ex-pectancy is prolonged, so the pension fund has brought great challenges. Therefore, the precise forecast and analysis of the endowment insurance for urban residents in China can lay foundation for the follow-up study of the endowment insurance system in the future. Based on the data of the elderly population and the dependency rate from 2010 to 2014, this paper firstly makes a descriptive analysis of the overall elderly population in China; secondly, it uses the grey GM(1,1) model to forecast and analyze the residents’ pension insurance expenditure. The results show that: China has shown an aging trend; pension expenditure is showing an upward trend year by year; therefore, the government should adjust and improve the relevant policies.