美国大豆价格对国内物价水平的影响

The Impact of US Soybean Prices on Domestic Price Levels

摘要: 在贸易战的背景下，大豆作为中美间的重要贸易品，不免受到贸易战的影响。目前中国已对进口美国大豆采取加征关税的措施，所以对美国大豆涨价之后可能的影响，中国应做好准备。本文从物价的角度分析大豆价格变动对国内的影响，通过建立大豆价格与我国居民消费价格指数及食品类价格指数的三元VAR模型，对物价受大豆冲击的反应程度进行了分析。通过脉冲响应分析发现，居民消费价格指数CPI与食品类CPI均会受到大豆价格的冲击，但冲击幅度不大，结论表明国内物价水平不会因美国大豆征税涨价而大幅波动。

Abstract: Under the background of trade war, soybean, as an important trade product between China and the United States, is unavoidable from the impact of trade war. At present, China has imposed tariffs on imported U.S. soybeans, so we should be prepared for the possible impact of the price increase of U.S. soybeans. This paper analyzes the impact of soybean price changes on China from the perspective of price. By establishing a three-way VAR model of soybean price and China’s price index price, the reaction degree of soybean price shocks is analyzed. The impulse response analysis shows that the overall price level of CPI and food CPI will be shocked by soybean prices, but the impact is not large. The conclusion shows that the domestic price level will not fluctuate greatly because of the U.S. soybean tax increase.