山东半岛城市群规模结构特征及影响因素研究

The Characteristics of City Size Distribution and Its Influencing Factors of Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration

摘要: 基于2000~2016年城区人口数据，运用首位度指数、位序–规模法则、城市基尼指数等方法，首先分析了山东半岛城市群城市规模结构的现状及演变特征，结果显示：山东半岛城市群城市体系逐渐走向完善，各规模城市数量比失衡呈“纺锤型”；城市规模结构分布符合位序–规模法则；首位城市济南辐射作用低，城市规模结构呈“双极型”；中小城市发展能力减弱，短时期内难以形成特大及以上规模城市。通过AHP层次分析法分析山东半岛城市群城市规模结构演变各影响因素权重，发现人口城镇化率和经济发展水平是两大主要因素。最后，基于大中小城市的不同特性，提出要综合利用各城市自身优势来促进农业人口合理转移，推动山东半岛城市群城市规模结构的合理优化，从而提高新型城镇化发展水平。

Abstract: Using the law of primate city, the rank-size rule and the Gennich coefficient model, the paper has analyzed the current situation and evolution characteristics based on the urban population of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2015. The result indicates that the urban system is gradually improving; the proportion of different-grade cities shows a spindle-shaped type. And the city size distribution abides by an ideal Zipf’s law. The drive force of Jinan is weak, the structure of city size distribution shows a double-core structure. In addition, the development capacity of small and medium-sized cities is weakening which has affected the formation of meg-acities and metropolises. Then though the analytic hierarchy process to index system for weight assignment, this paper discussed the influence factors of city size distribution. The result shows that the level of population urbanization and economic development are the two main factors. And considering the different characteristics of cities, the paper proposes that in order to transfer the agricultural population reasonably, the advantages of cities at all levels should be utilized com-prehensively, and then promotes the rational optimization of the city size distribution of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration, so as to comprehensively enhance the development level and quality of new urbanization.