中央台指导预报在塔城地区最高温度预报中的对比检验及评估

CCTV Guidance on the Assessment and Com-parison of Maximum Temperature Forecast in Tacheng Area

摘要: 利用新疆天气预报质量检验平台，对2013年1月1日~2018年2月28日中央台及塔城气象台制作的本地7个县级以上城镇早间、晚间24 h最高温度预报准确率、平均绝对误差、订正技巧评分进行对比检验及评估分析，结果表明：1) 本地二份报各年、季、月、各站点最高温度预报准确率及平均绝对误差均高于(小于)中央台指导预报，就准确率而言，早间报高于晚间报，2013年最低，而最高的分布差异较大，夏季准确率最高，冬季或春季最低，8月准确率最高，1月、3月最低，和丰、塔城、裕民准确率最高，乌苏或沙湾最低；2) 就平均绝对误差而言，早间报小于晚间报，2013年最大，而最小值的分布差异较大；秋季或春季平均绝对误差最大，冬季或夏季最小，3月、2月平均绝对误差最大，8月、1月最小，乌苏、沙湾、额敏平均绝对误差最大，和丰或塔城最小。3) 本地各年、季、站点最高温度预报相对于中央台指导预报技巧评分均为正技巧，且晚间报 > 早间报，2013年技巧评分最低，2014年、2016年、2017年最高，春季技巧评分最高，夏季或冬季最低，除个别月份为负技巧外，其余月份均为正技巧，其中3月、10月最高，6月、2月、1月最低，二份报均以额敏技巧评分最高，早间报托里最低，晚间报沙湾最低。

Abstract: Based on the quality inspection platform of Xinjiang weather forecast, the accuracy rate, average absolute error, and correction skill score of the daily maximum temperature forecast of 7 local towns above county level in the morning and evening of January 1, 2013-February 28, 2018 made by the central and Tacheng meteorological stations from January 1, 2013 to February 28, 2018 were compared and analyzed. The results showed that: 1) two copies of a local newspaper every year, season, month, and the highest temperature site prediction accuracy and the mean absolute error were higher than (less than) CCTV guidance forecast; in terms of accuracy, the morning newspaper is higher than the evening newspaper, the lowest in 2013; the supreme difference is bigger, the distribution of the highest accuracy in summer, winter or spring minimum, the highest accuracy, August 1 month, 3 month minimum, belong, Tacheng prefecture, the most correct, the lowest Wusu or Shawan. 2) In terms of average absolute error, the morning standard is smaller than the evening standard, and the maximum value is in 2013, while the distribution of the minimum value is quite different. The average absolute error is the largest in autumn or spring, the smallest in winter or summer, the largest in March and February, the smallest in August and January, the largest in Usu, Shawan and Ergin, and the smallest in Hefeng or Tacheng. 3) Local each year, season, the highest temperature site forecast guidance forecast skill score are relative to the CCTV skill, and evening newspaper > morning, skill scores lowest in 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, highest skill scores the highest in spring, summer or winter, in addition to the negative in individual skills, the rest of the month are skills, which in March, the highest in October, January, February, June, two copies of newspaper to Emin skill score the highest, morning lowest Torrey, evening Shawan lowest.