资源密集型区域城市化与能源消费关系研究——以山西省为例

Study on Relationship between Energy Consumption and Urbanization in Resource-Intensive Region—Taking Shanxi Province as an Example

摘要: 城市是许多重大社会–经济–环境问题的显著表现场所，尤其对于资源密集型区域而言，城市是促进和实现区域人地关系优化的核心载体，具有复杂的资源调动力和影响力。而城市化水平的提高和社会经济的快速发展，必须以消耗大量的能源作为基础保障。本研究以全国典型资源密集型区域的山西省为研究靶区，综合运用主成分分析法和多元通径分析模型，解析19782014年间山西城市化进程中的能源消费的影响效应。结果表明，1) 人口城市化率的总效应最大达到0.985，但其直接影响仅为0.109；间接影响效应则高达0.876，山西省城市化通过其他因素做“中介”对能源消费影响发生作用，而且间接影响远大于直接影响。2) 城市居民可支配收入的直接影响最大，且同向变化。3) 间接效应最高的是民用汽车拥有量，并且正的间接效应达到负的直接效应两倍多，交通方式将我们的生产生活各方面连接起来，车辆增多通过影响其他因素间接导致能源消费的增加。城市居民可支配收入和民用汽车拥有量起到的中介作用非同寻常，其他因素通过这三个因素起中介作用的影响和机会较大。

Abstract: As a significant performance venue of many major social-economic-environment problems, as well as its complexity of resource mobilization and influence, city is a core carrier to promote and implement regional man-land relationship optimization, especially for the resource-intensive re-gion. The rapid development of social economic and the improved level of urbanization need a lot of energy as the basis of security. This study takes the typical resource-based region Shanxi Province as the research target, uses comprehensive integrated principal component analysis and multivariate path analysis model, and analyzes the impact of energy consumption in the process of urbanization in Shanxi during 1978-2014. The main characteristics of energy consumption in the process of urbanization in Shanxi are: 1) The correlation coefficient between urbanization rate and energy consumption is 0.985, which is very close, but the direct impact is only 0.109; the indirect effect is as high as 0.876, so that the energy consumption of Shanxi Province is influenced by other factors as “intermediary”, and the indirect effect is far greater than the direct effect. 2) Urban residents’ disposable income had the most direct impact on energy consumption, and changes in the same direction. 3) The highest indirect effects among these factors are the civilian car own-ership, and its positive indirect effect (1.893) is nearly twice to the negative direct effect (−0.976), and the transportation connects all aspects of our life, the increasing of vehicles which impact other factors indirectly leads to an increase of energy consumption. Urban residents’ disposable income and Civilian car ownership play the unusual intermediary role, and through these two factors others’ indirect influence and opportunities are greater.