基于SPI指数的近54年豫中地区干旱时空演变特征
Evolution Characteristics of Drought in the Region of Henan Province in Recent 54 Years Based on SPI
摘要: 基于1961~2014年逐月平均气温和降水数据，应用标准化降水指数(SPI)和Mann-Kendall突变检验，定量分析了豫中地区月尺度、季节尺度、半年尺度和年尺度上的干旱发生频率，揭示了该地区干旱发生的时间演变特征及干旱发生的原因。结果表明，SPI值能够较好地反映豫中地区干旱的时空特征：随着时间尺度的增大，SPI值波动幅度减小，干旱发生频率降低。近54年豫中地区历年、半年、季节及月尺度均有干旱发生，干旱发生频率总体呈上升趋势，且各地区之间分布不均匀；季节尺度中以秋季干旱发生最为严重。在干旱发生的年际变化方面，豫中地区在1968年、1986~1988年和2013年发生了大范围的持续严重干旱。欧亚大气环流异常稳定、厄尔尼诺现象和气温的升高对干旱发生的贡献不可忽视。
Abstract: Drought is in a long enough period of time, serious shortage of rainfall, resulting in soil due to evaporation and moisture loss, a decrease in streamflows, undermining the normal growth of crops and human activities of disastrous weather phenomenon. Based on 1961-2014 of monthly mean temperature and precipitation data, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) quan-titative analysis of the drought in central Henan Province, monthly scale, seasonal scale, scale for the first half of the year and annual scales on the frequency of occurrence are analyzed, which reveals the time evolution characteristics of the drought and the causes of drought occurrence. The results show that SPI value can better reflect the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in the region of Henan Province. With the increase of time scale, the fluctuation range of SPI value decreases, and the frequency of drought decreases. In the past 54 years, drought occurred in half a year, season and month scale, the frequency of drought is on the rise, and the distribution between regions is not uniform; seasonal scale in autumn season drought occurred the most serious. During the inter annual changes of drought, the drought occurred in 2013, 1986-1988 and 1968 in the middle of Henan Province. The contribution of the Eurasian atmospheric circulation anomalies, the El Nino phenomenon and the rise of temperature to the occurrence of drought can not be ignored.
文章引用：布亚召. 基于SPI指数的近54年豫中地区干旱时空演变特征[J]. 自然科学, 2018, 6(6): 417-425. https://doi.org/10.12677/OJNS.2018.66054

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