山东省城镇化进程中产业结构演变分析

Analysis on the Evolution of Industrial Structure in the Process of the Urbanization in Shandong Province

摘要: 城镇化的发展一方面会引起产业结构发生变化，另一方面也会对就业结构产生影响。根据钱纳里的工业化阶段理论，自“十一五规划”以来，山东省的产业发展已经由工业化中期阶段进入到工业化高级阶段。根据《山东省统计年鉴》 (2007~2017年)中的数据，通过图表以及相关分析、回归分析等方法，对2006~2016年期间的山东省城镇化发展水平、城镇化发展过程中产业结构以及就业结构的变化进行分析。结果表明：1) 山东省城镇化进程目前正处于加速阶段；2) 山东省产业结构演变基本符合世界大多数工业国家产业结构的演变规律，目前正处于工业化中级阶段向高级阶段的过渡时期；3) 城镇化进程中产业结构的演变进一步影响了就业结构的变化，第一产业从业人员比重持续减少，第二产业和第三产业就业人员呈现出缓慢增加趋势。

Abstract: The development of urbanization on the one hand will cause changes in the industrial structure, also have an impact on the employment structure on the other hand. According to H. Chenery in-dustrialization stage theory, since the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan,” the industry of Shandong Province has shifted from the middle stage to the advanced stage of industrialization. According to the data in the “Shandong Statistical Yearbook ”since 2007-2017, the urbanization level and the industrial & employment structure are analyzed by using correlation analysis, regression analysis method in the process of urbanization of Shandong Province since 2006 to 2016. The results show that: 1) the urbanization process in Shandong Province is in an accelerated stage; 2) the evolution of industrial structure in Shandong Province basically conforms to the evolution law of industrial structure in most of the industrial countries in the world; 3) the evolution of industrial structure in the process of urbanization is in a transitional period from the intermediate stage to the advanced stage; the employment structure changes; the proportion of employees in the primary industry continues to decrease, the employment of secondary industry and tertiary industry shows a slow increase trend.