资本市场与区域产业结构的协调关系研究—以云南省为例

The Research about the Coordination Relationship between Capital Market and Regional Industrial Structure—Taking Yunnan Province as an Example

摘要: 经济新常态背景下，我国各省市区域产业结构与资本市场之间的互动协调关系愈加紧密。成熟的资本市场助推产业结构转型升级，产业经济健康持续发展又可以孕育出更优质的资本市场。本文以云南省为例，通过构建向量自回归(VAR)的模型，分析云南省产业发展与资本市场融资之间的协调关系。数据与模型运算结果表明，云南省从2005年至今产业结构不断优化，但存在资本市场对产业结构优化发展的促进效用不明显、资本市场本身结构发展滞后等问题。最后对新常态下云南省产业结构优化发展以及资本市场的完整构建提出了建议。

Abstract: Under the new normal economic background, the interaction and coordination between the re-gional industrial structure and the capital market in China’s various provinces and cities has be-come increasingly closer. The mature capital market boosts the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure. The healthy and sustainable development of the industrial economy can bred a better capital market. This paper takes Yunnan Province as an example to analyze the coordination relationship between the industrial development of Yunnan Province and the capital market financing by constructing a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The results of data and model calculations show that the industrial structure of Yunnan Province has been continuously optimized since 2005, but there are still problems such as the impossibility of the capital market to promote the optimization and development of the industrial structure and the lagging development of the structure of the capital market itself. Finally, the paper proposes suggestions on the optimization and development of the industrial structure and the complete construction of the capital market in Yunnan Province under the new normal state.