2008~2017年烟台气象灾害特征及影响分析

Characteristics and Influence of Meteorological Disasters in Yantai during 2008~2017

摘要: 根据烟台市2008~2017年灾情年报统计数据，分析近十年烟台气象灾害的影响和特征，发现2008~2017年烟台市气象灾害类型有暴雨洪涝、强对流风雹、干旱、寒潮大风、雪灾、霜冻、冬季冻害和台风等八类；烟台气象灾害特征为暴雨洪涝、强对流风雹和干旱发生次数多、灾害影响重，近5年干旱频率明显升高。由受灾影响人口数量分析，受干旱影响的受灾人口数量最多，占总数的45%；受寒潮大风和冬季冻害受灾人口数量最少，占总数的0.1%。从经济损失与当年GDP之比的数值来看，暴雨洪涝造成的损失比例最高，占总数的34%；其次为强对流风雹，占26%的比例；寒潮大风比例最低，占总损失的1%。研究结论为：基于现有数据，今后应有针对性地提升预报服务短板，发展基于影响的预报和基于风险的预警。

Abstract: Based on the statistical data of the annual disaster report of Yantai from 2008 to 2017, we analyzed the influence and characteristics of meteorological disasters in Yantai City. The results show that there are eight types of meteorological disasters in Yantai from 2008 to 2017: flood, strong convective wind and hail, drought, cold wave and gale, snow disaster, frost, winter freezing disaster, typhoon. The meteorological disasters in Yantai are characterized by flood, strong convective wind and hail, drought, which occur frequently and have a serious impact. The frequency of drought has increased significantly in recent five years. According to the analysis of the affected population, the drought affected the most people, accounting for 45% of the total, and the cold wave gale and winter freezing affected the least people, accounting for 0.1% of the total. According to the ratio of economic loss to GDP in that year, the proportion of flood is the highest, accounting for 34% of the total, followed by strong convective wind and hail, accounting for 26%, and the proportion of cold wave and gale is the lowest, accounting for 1% of the total loss. The conclusion of the study is helpful to improve forecasting service, develop impact-based forecasting and risk-based weather warning.