基于时间序列模型的全国卷烟销量分析

Analysis of National Cigarette Sales Based on Time Series Model

摘要: 准确预测卷烟销量，可以为卷烟公司制定科学的营销策略提供保障。本文选取2004年第一季度至2016年第四季度的全国卷烟销量季度销量数据，采用时间序列确定性因素分解模型，对其趋势特征和季节波动进行分析，拟合出全国卷烟销量模型，拟合结果较好，为后续预测卷烟销量提供了较好的模型基础。

Abstract: Accurate prediction of cigarette sales can provide guarantee for cigarette companies to formulate scientific marketing strategies. This article selects the national cigarette sales quarterly sales data from first quarter of 2004 to fourth quarter of 2016, by using the time sequence of certainty factor decomposition model to analyze its trend characteristics and seasonal fluctuations, and fits out the national cigarette sales model. The results are better, which provides a better model basis for the subsequent prediction of cigarette sales.