消费意愿和能力对消费支出影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Consumer Willingness and Ability on Consumer Expenditure

摘要: 消费支出不仅受到宏观经济运行态势的影响，而且与消费者自身的消费意愿(信心、预期等)和可消费的能力有着密切的关系。本文以消费者信心指数CCI和消费者预期指数CEI作为衡量消费者信心的指标，以城镇居民人均可支配收入DPI作为衡量消费能力的指标，消费支出则采用城镇居民人均消费性支出NPE的指标。通过采用协整分析和脉冲响应等方法，建立VAR模型，实证分析了消费者信心和消费能力对消费支出的影响程度。结果表明，CEI对NPE的有显著影响，且在分析所有变量之间的相互关系时，发现DPI对NPE的贡献率是最大的。

Abstract: Consumer spending is not only affected by the macroeconomic situation, but also closely related to consumers’ willingness to consume (confidence, expectations, etc.) and the ability to consume. In this paper, the consumer confidence index CCI and the consumer expectation index CEI are used as indicators to measure consumer confidence. The per capita disposable income DPI of urban residents is used as an indicator to measure consumption capacity, while the consumer expenditure is based on the per capita consumption expenditure NPE of urban residents. The VAR model was established by adopting co-integration analysis and impulse response methods, and empirically analyzed the influence of consumer confidence and consumption ability on consumer expenditure. The results show that CEI has a significant impact on NPE, and when analyzing the relationship between all variables, it is found that the contribution rate of DPI to NPE is the largest.