基于时间序列分析的云南省人口数量模型

Population Quantity Model of Yunnan Province Based on Time Series Analysis

摘要: 人口问题是一个巨大的问题，这关系到社会的方方面面。本文针对云南省人口当期受前期影响大，且增长呈现出接近线性方式的特点，建立了ARIMA模型和线性模型，以均方误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)作为精度评价指标，最终得出ARIMA模型精度最高的结论。并以此模型对云南省未来5年的人口数量进行预测，得出云南省人口将会稳定增长的结论。

Abstract: Population problem is a huge problem, which is related to many aspects of society. In view of the fact that the population of Yunnan Province is greatly affected by the previous period and its growth is in a linear way, this paper establishes ARIMA model and linear model, and takes mean square error (RMSE) and average absolute percentage error (MAPE) as the accuracy evaluation indexes, and finally draws the conclusion that the ARIMA model has the highest accuracy. Based on this model, we predict the population of Yunnan Province in the next five years, and get the conclusion that the population of Yunnan Province will increase steadily.