基于多元统计方法对上市酒类公司进行运营性风险分析

Analysis of Operational Risk of Listed Liquor Companies Based on Multivariate Statistical Method

摘要: 运营性风险是各行各业重点关注的问题，建立高预测程度的风险分析体系十分必要。本文以白酒行业为例，利用财务数据建立预测程度高的风险分析体系，从而为各行业运营期间的风险分析提供一种方法。根据各酒类公司的财务数据，利用因子分析控制指标减少；进而利用聚类分析将各公司分类；最后根据各公司的分类，进行判别分析，从而对各白酒公司进行风险预测。

Abstract: Operational risk is a key concern in all industries, and it is necessary to establish a risk analysis system with high predictive degree. Taking the liquor industry as an example, this paper uses fi-nancial data to establish a risk analysis system with high prediction degree, so as to provide a method for risk analysis during operation of various industries. According to the financial data of each liquor company, the factor analysis control index is reduced, then the company is classified by cluster analysis, and finally, according to the classification of each company, the discriminant analysis is carried out, so that the risk prediction of each liquor company is carried out.