基于SWAP的汉江流域旱涝急转时空演变分析
Study of Temporal-Spatial Evolution of the Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Events Based on SWAP Index in Hanjiang River Basin
DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2019.81002, PDF,  被引量    国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 赵 英, 陈 华, 杨家伟, 许崇育：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，湖北 武汉
关键词: 汉江流域；SWAP指数；旱涝急转；Hanjiang River Basin； SWAP Index； Drought-Flood Events
摘要: 旱涝急转事件表现为干旱、洪涝等水文极端事件在短期内交替产生，灾害突发、抢险难度大，对社会发展易造成重大威胁。因此，研究旱涝急转事件的时空演变规律意义重大。本文以汉江流域为例，采用SWAP指数和游程理论，分析和研究历史及未来时期汉江流域的旱涝演变及旱涝急转变化特征。结果表明：1) 历史及未来时期涝转旱事件频次及平均强度均小于旱转涝事件，旱转涝事件发生可能性更高、威胁性更大。2) 历史时期典型旱涝年SWAP指数呈现从西北到东南地区先减小后增大的趋势。1966年汉江中下游的干旱等级明显高于上游地区；1983年汉江上游和下游的洪涝等级明显高于中游地区。
Abstract: The drought and flood event are characterized by extreme drought and flood events alternate in the short term. Disaster recovery is difficult and poses a major threat to social development. Therefore, researching the temporal and spatial evolution of drought and flood event is of great significance. This article uses the SWAP index and run theory to analyze the evolution of drought and flood events and change characteristics of drought-flood in history and future periods in the Hanjiang River basin. Results show as follows: 1) In history and future periods, the frequency and average intensity of flood to drought were less than drought to flood, the occurrence more likely and threatening of drought to flood. 2) In history period, the SWAP index of the typical drought and flood year decreased then increased from northwest to southeast. In 1966, the drought level in middle and lower reaches was higher than the upper reaches; in 1983, the flood level in the upper and lower reaches was higher than the middle reaches of the Hanjiang River basin.
文章引用：赵英, 陈华, 杨家伟, 许崇育. 基于SWAP的汉江流域旱涝急转时空演变分析[J]. 水资源研究, 2019, 8(1): 13-23. https://doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2019.81002

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