基于概率统计的软件许可证需求数量预测模型设计与实现

Design and Implementation of Software License Demand Forecasting Model Based on Probability Statistics

摘要: 为降低集团公司科研软件采购成本，提高软件许可证利用率，通过对许可证使用数据的统计，利用概率统计的方法构建许可证需求预测模型。根据各分公司软件需求时间各异的规律，利用削峰平谷方法设计并建立集团公司科研软件许可证共享中心，实现软件集中管理与共享应用，减少集团公司许可证采购数量，节约软件投资成本，该研究提出基于概率统计的许可证需求预测方法，为企业版软件许可证采购数量提供依据。

Abstract: To master the real demand of the license of scientific research software of the group company and improve its utilization, we discover different rules of peak-valley cycles in the use of software license through analyzing mass monitoring data from branch companies. We used the shared method to design and establish a license application center, which centralized management and realized sharing of enterprise software within the group company, reduced the number of licenses purchased by the group company, and saved software investment costs. This study proposes a data-driven license demand forecasting method, which provides a scientific basis for enterprise soft-ware planning.