基于系统动力学的辽宁省污水初始排放权定价实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Pricing of Initial Discharge Right of Sewage in Liaoning Province Based on System Dynamics

摘要: 本文在分析辽宁污水排放与处理及排放权交易现状基础上利用系统动力学模型研究辽宁污水初始排放权价格，运用VENSIM PLE软件对模型仿真，得出辽宁2013~2018年污水初始排放权价格；根据辽宁省未来可能发展趋势，提出了人口增长型、经济增长型、技术提高型、投资增加型以及综合型五种方案，从价格变化率以及价格弹性系数两个角度分析了辽宁污水初始排放权价格的变化情况；根据不同行业系数讨论辽宁造纸及纸制品业、皮革工业、医药制造业以及化学原料和化学制品制造业四个不同行业污水初始排放权价格。预期为污水初始排放权的系统建模提供理论支撑并为环保管理当局环保决策提供依据。

Abstract: Based on the analysis of the current situation of sewage discharge and treatment and emission trading in Liaoning Province, this paper studies the initial emission right price of wastewater from Liaoning Province by using the system dynamics model, and uses VENSIM PLE software to simulate the model, and obtains the price of the initial discharge right of wastewater in Liaoning 2013-2018. According to the possible future development trend of Liaoning Province, this paper puts forward five schemes: the population growth type, economic growth type, technology improvement type, investment increase type and the comprehensive type, analyzes the change of the initial discharge right price of Liaoning wastewater from the two angles of price change rate and price elasticity coefficient and discusses sewage initial emission rights price in four different industries of Liaoning paper and paper products industry, leather industry and pharmaceutical manufacturing and chemical raw materials and chemicals manufacturing industry. It is expected to provide theoretical support for the systematic modeling of the initial discharge rights of sewage and to provide a basis for environmental protection decisions of environmental management authorities.