基于SIR模型的阿片类药物传输分析

Analysis of Opioid Transmission Based on SIR Model

摘要: 近些年，阿片药物危机在世界范围均频繁发生，美国作为世界上唯一的超级大国，阿片药物都给美国带来了剧烈的影响。其中不仅给美国的社会健康问题带来一系列困扰，还给美国现有的法律体系问题与美国经济重要部门带来一系列威胁。阿片药物危机影响程度是因地而异的，因此本文通过拟合时序散点图与三维曲面图对未知进行判断，建立SIR传染模型，演化预测未来几年阿片药物危机的时间地点，并基于SIRS模型建立具有多感染阶段的SInR模型，从复杂网路结构、网络规模以及药物相对感染力方面进行仿真演化，深入解析药物传播系统的感染机理与内在规律，进而明确题中药物趋势与集中因素，制定有效策略，来完善阿片药物传播中的薄弱环节，确定影响演化模型的重要参数。

Abstract: In recent years, opium drug crisis arises in the worldwide frequently. As the superpower, the United States suffered great impact of the opium drug crisis. Among these impacts, not only do they bring a series of trouble for the healthy development of American society but also bring a series of threats for the existing legal system and fundamental economic departments of the US. The degree of the impact of opium drug crisis of one region varies from that of another. Hence, this passage makes judgement of the unknown by fitting time series scatter plot and 3D surface map, setting up contagious SIR model, showing and forecasting the time and placement of opium drug crisis in the next few years. And it sets up multiple infection stage SIRS model on the basis of SInR model, showing this from the aspects of complex network structure, network scale and the relative infectivity of drugs, making thorough analysis of the sensing principle and internal regulation of drug delivery system, thus specifying drug trend and concentrate factors in question, developing effective strategies to perfect the weak link of the circulation of the opium drug crisis and affirm the key parameters of the evolution model.