1960~2018年湖南邵阳县气温变化特征分析

Analysis of Temperature Change Characteristics of Shaoyang County in Hunan Province from 1960 to 2018

摘要: 本文利用气候变化分析、M-K突变检验和小波分析等方法，分析了邵阳县近59年来的气温变化特征。结果表明：邵阳县近59 a的气温变化主要是冷–暖的大趋势。在20世纪60年代至80年代，这种趋势持续下降，90年代气温在平均气候附近波动，在21世纪开始升高。7月至9月的气温呈下降趋势，而上升趋势在2月和4月最为显著，其次是3月和5月，增幅0.15℃/10a，它们对全年气温的上升影响最大。年平均最高气温和最低气温也在升高，最高气温的升高比最低气温更明显。通过M-K突变检验得出结果：邵阳县气温突变点出现在2003年，并通过0.001置信度检验。邵阳县年平均气温波动约为4 a。此外，准15 a的周期性变化发生在1960年至1990年之间，并且在1990年至2018年期间发生了9 a的周期变化。

Abstract: Using climate change analysis, M-K mutation test and wavelet analysis, the temperature variation characteristics of Shaoyang County in the past 59 years were analyzed. The results show that the temperature change in Shaoyang County near 59 a is mainly a cold-warm trend. In the 1960s and 1980s, this trend continued to decline. In the 1990s, temperatures fluctuated around the average climate and began to rise in the 21st century. The temperature in July-September showed a downward trend, while the upward trend was most significant in February and April, followed by March and May, an increase of 0.15˚C/10a, which had the greatest impact on the annual temperature increase. The annual average maximum temperature and minimum temperature are also rising, and the highest temperature rise is more obvious than the lowest temperature. The results were obtained by M-K mutation test: the temperature change point in Shaoyang County appeared in 2003 and passed the 0.001 confidence test. The annual average temperature fluctuation in Shaoyang County is about 4 a. In addition, the periodic variation of quasi 15 a occurred between 1960 and 1990, and a periodic change of 9 a occurred between 1990 and 2018.