京沪深房地产上市公司的盈利能力分析——基于随机森林

Analysis of Profitability of Real Estate Listed Companies in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen—Based on Random Forest

摘要: 根据京沪深三地的实际情况，选取合适的反映盈利能力的指标，对三地57家房地产上市公司进行了盈利等级划分，并建立了随机森林盈利能力分类模型。结果表明：京沪深三地房地产上市公司盈利等级数量分布均衡，且随机森林模型精度较高，可以有效预测三地房地产上市公司的盈利能力等级。基于以上结论，针对我国房地产行业的发展情况，对于该行业的未来成长以及房地产公司如何提高盈利能力提出了相应政策建议。

Abstract: According to the development of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen real estate companies, choosing appropriate profitability indicators, the 57 listed real estate companies of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are classified, and the Random Forest model is established. The results show that the number of profit rankings of real estate listed companies in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen is ba-lanced, and the model by random forest has a high precision, which can effectively predict the profitability level of real estate listed companies in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Based on the above conclusions, in response to the development of China’s real estate industry, the corres-ponding policy recommendations for the future growth of the industry and how real estate com-panies improve their profitability are proposed.