基于系统动力学的库存控制研究

Research on SD Supermarket Inventory Control

摘要: 供应链当中由于各个节点企业间存在信息传递缓慢、信息不对称导致的需求预测不准、订货时间不稳定、订货量不稳定等多种因素导致库存和安全库存高居不下，库存周转率相对较低、库存成本相对较高等常见问题。本文从系统动力学的角度，分析导致库存过高的原因。文中运用vensim建立供应商、配送中心、门店这一常见的供应链仿真模型，最后通过某一品类常见的快消品进行实例分析。文章最后通过对库存调整周期、配送延迟时间、配送中心库存、各个节点的安全库存进行敏感性分析，结果表明：通过改变库存策略，可以在满足超市的需求的情况下，使超市和配送中心保持较低的库存水平，大大降低了库存成本。该系统能够有效地反映库存及其成本的变化，可以为供应链库存管理提供参考。

Abstract: In the supply chain, due to the slow information transmission between the various nodes, the in-accurate demand forecast is caused by information asymmetry, the unstable ordering time, the unstable order quantity, etc. The inventory and safety stocks are high, and the inventory turnover rate is relatively low. Common problem is relatively high inventory costs. This paper analyzes the causes of excessive inventory from the perspective of system dynamics. In this paper, Vensim is used to establish a common supply chain simulation model for suppliers, distribution centers, and stores. Finally, a case analysis is performed through a common fast-moving consumer product of a certain category. At the end of the paper, through the sensitivity analysis of inventory adjustment cycle, delivery delay time, distribution center inventory, and safety stock of each node, the results show that by changing the inventory strategy, supermarkets and distribution centers can be maintained while meeting the needs of supermarkets. Lower inventory levels significantly reduce inventory costs. The system can effectively reflect changes in inventory and its costs, and can pro-vide reference for supply chain inventory management.