两地区人口流动肺结核动力学模型研究

Dynamic Model of Tuberculosis in Population Migration between Two Regions

摘要: 为研究人口迁移与疫苗接种对肺结核传播的影响，建立人口密度不同的两地区之间流动的SEIR流行病动力学模型，并考虑对各地区实施疫苗接种措施，计算其有效再生数，通过数值模拟作有效再生数关于迁移率与疫苗接种率的敏感性分析。结果表明，高人口密度地区向低密度地区迁移可以降低有效再生数，缩小染病规模，低密度地区向高密度地区迁移则结果相反，但均不能通过迁移达到消除肺结核的目的，而适当的对高密度人口地区施加疫苗可以消除肺结核。

Abstract: To study the effects of population migration and vaccination on the spread of tuberculosis, a dy-namic SEIR epidemic model of the two regions with different population densities is established. The effective reproduction number is calculated, and the vaccination strategy for each region is considered in model. We numerically simulate the sensitivity of the effective reproduction number with respect to migration rate and vaccination rate. The results show that migration from areas with high population density to areas with low population density can reduce the effective re-production number and disease scale. The migration from low-density areas to high-density areas has the opposite result, but they cannot achieve the purpose of eliminating tuberculosis through migration. Appropriate application of vaccines to people in the high-density area can eliminate tuberculosis.