古罗马帝国兴衰原因探讨

An Analysis of the Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire

摘要: 一个国家的兴衰很大程度上依赖于该国的财富涌现能否满足人民的自我肯定需求。从公元前8世纪建城到公元2世纪，古罗马用了1000多年的时间崛起从而称霸欧、亚、非大陆，却在不到200年的时间里迅速瓦解衰败。本文通过分析古罗马人口和疆域变化，从财富涌现和流转的角度探索其兴衰的原因。古罗马的兴盛缘于侵略扩张与自主创新如土地分配和道路发展的共同作用，在600余年间实现人口增加600余倍和国土增加6000余倍的剧变。而当扩张逐渐停止、道路系统达到饱和后，透支未来和宗教便登上历史的舞台，成为维持帝国的主流方式。但无论财富如何增长都会有极限，当财富供需失去平衡、宗教的力量无法凝聚民众时，各种社会矛盾便相继爆发，罗马便日渐式微，最终走向灭亡。

Abstract: The vicissitudes of a nation largely depends on whether its wealth emergence can meet people’s self-assertiveness demands. From the eighth century B. C. to the second century A. D., Roman had grown into the most powerful country dominating Europe, Asia and Africa within more than 1000 years. However, she just collapsed within less than 200 years. Based on the analysis of demographic and territorial changes of Roman, it is found that the rise of Roman results from a synergic effect of both expansions and innovations as indicated by road system constructions and land distributions. In about 600 years, the population and territory had increased by 600 times and 6000 times respectively. As expansions and road system constructions reached their limits, overdraw from the future and religion practice became the dominant governing method to maintain the empire. However, when the wealth emergence mentioned above exhausted and all governing institutions stopped functioning, Roman Empirecame to an end.