房价与GDP、货币供应周期波动及其关系研究

Cycle Fluctuation among Housing Price, GDP and Money Supply

摘要: 采用单谱分析与交叉谱分析方法对房价与GDP、货币供应周期性进行研究，研究结果表明：① 在1979~2016年期间，GDP增长存在10年左右的中周期和5年左右的短周期；在1991~2016年期间，货币供应M1增长存在3年左右的短周期和9年左右的中周期；在1993~2016年期间，房价存在2~3年的短周期和12年左右的中周期。② 在1993~2016年期间，GDP、货币供应M1的增长与房价增长均在2年周期上存在较强的相关性，并且GDP、M1的增长波动与房价增长波动基本同步。

Abstract: The study investigated the cyclical relationship among housing price, GDP and money supply, using single-spectral analysis and cross-spectral analysis. The results demonstrated that: 1) From the results of single-spectral analysis, during 1979-2016, there are some medium-term cycles of about 10 years and short cycles of about 5 years in the process of GDP growth. During 1991-2016, there are some short circles of about 3 years and medium-term cycles of about 9 years in the money supply growth. During 1993-2016, there are some short cycles of 2 - 3 years and medium-term cycles of about 12 years in the process of housing price growth. 2) During the period of 1993-2016, the growth of GDP, money supply M1 and house price growth all had a strong correlation in the two-year cycle, and the growth volatility of GDP and M1 was basically synchronized with the fluctuation of house price growth.