基于多元统计分析的山西省县域农业经济差异研究

Study on County Agricultural Eco-nomic Disparities in Shanxi Province Based on Multivariate Statistics Analysis

摘要: 区域经济差异是指在一个统一的国家内部，一些区域比另一些区域有更快的增长速度、更高的经济发展水平和更强的经济实力，致使空间上呈现发达区域与不发达区域并存的格局。山西的经济结构具有典型的资源型、低级化的特征，形成了以煤炭、电力、冶金等能源原材料型工业结构。但伴随着近年来煤炭产业的不景气，大力发展农业就有着重大意义。在发展过程中，山西省各个县域的内部分化加速，农业经济的差距开始加大。本文以山西省各个县域的农业经济为研究对象，选取山西省所辖的115个县域为研究对象，采用了多元统计方法中的主成分分析、因子分析、聚类分析的研究方法，建立模型，分别从时间角度分析了2005~2013年山西省县域农业经济的发展规律，从空间分布角度分析了2013年山西省各县域农业经济的空间分布差异。通过建立相关的评价指标，将主成分分析和因子分析的分析结果与县域的农业发展现状结合，得出了影响各县域农业经济的三个主要因素：县域的农业生产条件；县域的农村用电量；县域的农民人均纯收入。通过对这些县域影响因素的综合得分进行排名，可以得到每个县域的综合排名情况，再通过聚类分析将各个县域的农业经济水平分为四类：农业经济发达地区、农业经济一般发达地区、农业经济欠发达地区和农业经济不发达地区。

Abstract: Regional economic disparity is a unified country, and in some regions than in other regions have faster growth, higher levels of economic development and stronger economic strength, resulting in spatial patterns of coexistence of developed regions and the less developed regions. Shanxi economic structure possesses the characteristics of typical resources, low-level and forms the industrial structure of the coal, electric power, metallurgy, energy and raw material. But with the coal industry's slump in recent years, developing agriculture is of great importance. In the course of development, differentiation within the county, Shanxi province, accelerating agricultural economy, the gap started to increase. This paper took all county domains of agricultural economy in Shanxi province for research object, selecting 115 county domains of Shanxi province, used multiple statistics methods such as main components analysis, factor analysis, and poly class analysis for research method, established a model, and analyzed respectively the 2005-2013 years development law from time angle and 2013 year space distribution differences in the view of space distribution of county domains’ agricultural economy in Shanxi province. Through the establishment of the evaluation index, combined the results of principal component analysis and factor analysis with the county agricultural development status, the county's three main factors affected the agricultural economy were obtained: conditions for agricultural production in the county; county rural consumption and per capita net income of farmers in the county. Through the integration of these factors in county ranking score, comprehensive ranking of each county could be clear, through cluster analysis, the level of the agricultural economy of the county was divided into four categories: agriculture in developed areas, the agricultural economy in generally developed area, agricultural economy in less-developed areas and the agricultural economy in underdeveloped area.