中俄经济周期协同性影响因素的实证研究
The Empirical Study on Influencing Factors of Sino-Russian Business Cycle Synchronization
摘要:
随着全球经济一体化的推进，国家间的经济波动传导机制更加多样化，各国经济的联动性增强。本文利用面板回归分析方法，基于2003年至2017年的相关经济数据，以双边贸易强度作为主要解释变量，对中国与俄罗斯两国的经济周期协同性影响因素进行实证分析，结果表明，双边贸易对经济周期协同性具有显著的正向作用，此外，产业结构相似度和金融一体化也对中俄经济周期协同性产生影响不同程度的影响，基于所得结论，本文提出几点相关政策建议。
Abstract:
With the advancement of global economic integration, the transmission
mechanisms of economic fluctuations among countries are more diversified and
the economic linkage among countries is enhanced. Using a panel regression analysis
method and choosing bilateral trade intensity as the main explanatory variable,
this paper conducts an empirical study on the influencing factors of
Sino-Russian business cycle synchronization based on the relevant economic data
from 2003 to 2017. The results show that the bilateral trade has significant
positive effect on business cycle synchronization. In addition, the similarity
of industrial structure and financial integration influence business cycle
synchronization to varying degrees. Based on the conclusion, this paper puts forward
some relevant policy suggestions.
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