全球变暖归因与停滞问题研究综述
A Review on Global Warming Attribution and Hiatus Analysis
DOI: 10.12677/CCRL.2019.84047, PDF,  被引量    国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 李 森, 冀 明, 李香兰*：北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院，北京;北京师范大学遥感科学国家重点实验室，北京；蔡厚才, 陈万东, 倪孝品, 林 利, 曾贵侯, 伍尔魏：南麂列岛国家海洋自然保护区管理局，浙江 温州
关键词: 全球变暖；驱动机制；人类活动；碳排放；气候谈判；全球变暖停滞；Global Warming； Driving Mechanism； Human Activity； Carbon Emissions； Climate Negotiations； Global Warming Hiatus
摘要: 全球变暖已成为毫无争议的事实，近年来全球变暖归因与停滞问题引起了国际社会广泛关注。政府间国际气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)第五次评估报告(IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, AR5)指出，由人类活动产生的二氧化碳(CO2)、甲烷(CH4)和氧化亚氮(N2O)等温室气体浓度增加是导致全球变暖的主要原因，人类活动和自然因素对全球变暖影响的相对贡献难以量化。1998~2012年全球平均地面增温速率明显趋缓，其产生机制包括气候系统外部强迫(太阳活动、火山爆发、地球自身周期性运转、热盐洋流、气溶胶及平流层水汽等)和自然变率(太平洋、大西洋、印度洋和南大洋的自然变率及热量再分配过程)，自然变率是影响全球变暖停滞的主要机制。受数据资料和模拟精度影响，全球变暖趋势尚存在较大不确定性。南极和北极地面温度观测数据极度缺乏，全球平均温度变化趋势的分析应将近年来升温剧烈的南极和北极地区包括进来，全球变暖升温速率降低但总体上升并未停滞。
Abstract: Global warming issues have become a widespread concern of the international community during the past few years. According to the latest annual report of IPCC AR5, the international scientific community has gradually reached a consensus that human activities led to greenhouse gases emissions (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), which are important driving forces of global warming. However, whether global warming is caused by human activities or natural factors has become a focus of debate and the contribution of these two aspects is not available. Global mean land surface temperature is slowdown during 1998-2012, which is referred to be the global warming hiatus. In term of external forcing factors, global warming hiatus is mainly affected by solar activities, volcanic eruptions, aerosols, and stratospheric water vapor. Meanwhile, the natural variabilities of the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the Southern Ocean also attributed to the global warming hiatus. Due to the lack of data and model-ling efficiency, the global warming attribution and hiatus analysis still remained large uncertainties. The modelling of global surface mean temperature should include the polar region such as the Antarctica and Arctic. Generally, the rate of global warming has slowed, but no hiatus appeared.
文章引用：李森, 冀明, 蔡厚才, 陈万东, 倪孝品, 林利, 曾贵侯, 伍尔魏, 李香兰. 全球变暖归因与停滞问题研究综述[J]. 气候变化研究快报, 2019, 8(4): 421-431. https://doi.org/10.12677/CCRL.2019.84047

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