中国东部百年温度长程相关性及其演变规律研究

Long-Term Correlation and Evolution Law of Temperature in Eastern China in the Past 100 Years

摘要: 本文针对国家气象信息中心(Chinese National Meteorological Information Center, NMIC)整理的“中国中东部百年均一化气温月值序列(V1.0)”中的中国东部16个站点1916.01~2015.12共100年的月平均气温数据进行分析，结合去趋势波动分析法(Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, DFA)研究了百年温度序列的长程相关性，揭示了该地区气候系统的记忆性特征及其年代际演变规律。文中首先分析比较了东部16个百年温度序列的常规统计量特征，发现近百年月温度序列中呈现的趋势变化，由中国北部到南方地区总体减弱，其主要原因在于北方地区近百年月温度序列整体平稳增长，而南方大部分台站基本是在1980s后才出现显著增温趋势。进一步，本文计算了16个台站百年尺度的温度序列标度指数，结果表明中国东部各个台站月温度序列标度指数范围在0.62~0.85之间，都存在一定长程相关性，其中东北和长江中下游区域台站温度序列长程相关性较强，南方地区长程相关性相对较弱。在此基础上，选取了50年时间窗口以10年为步长滑动计算温度序列标度指数，研究发现在100年内中国东部16站点的温度序列长程相关性存在转折，大部分站点的标度指数在前70年(1916~1986年)相对较为稳定，但是进入1980s，其长程相关性明显减弱，直至最近50年(1976~2015)，标度指数又出现整体增长趋势。该项研究结果可以为气候变化检测评估提供科学依据和支撑。

Abstract: In this paper, we study the 16 stations data set of the “Hundred Years of Uniform Temperatures (V1.0) in the East of China” between 1910.01 and 2015.12 which from the National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC). The temperature data were analyzed and combined with the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to study the long-range correlation of the 100-year temperature series, revealing the memory characteristics and interdecadal evolution of the climate system in the region. Firstly, the paper analyzes and compares the conventional statistic characteristics of 16 centu-ries-old temperature series in the east, and finds that the trend changes in the temperature series in the past 100 years are generally weakened from northern China to the south. It is caused by the temperature series in the northern region which has steady growth in the past 100 years, but in the South basically it showed a significant warming trend after 1980s. Furthermore, the temperature series scale index of 16 stations in the century is calculated. The results show that the monthly temperature series scale index of each station in eastern China ranges from 0.62 to 0.85, and there are certain long-range correlations. The long-range correlation of the temperature series of stations in the Northeast and middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River is relatively strong, and the long-range correlation in the southern areas is relatively weak. On this basis, the 50-year time window is selected to calculate the temperature series scale index with 10 years as the step size. The study finds that there is a turning point in the long-range correlation of the temperature series of 16 stations in eastern China within 100 years. In the first 70 years (1916 - 1986), the scale index of most stations was relatively stable, but in the 1980s, its long-range correlation was significantly weakened. Until the last 50 years (1976 - 2015), the scale index showed an overall growth trend. The results of this study can provide scientific evidence and support for climate change assessment.