云南省极端最大日雨量时空分布特征及其重现期估算

Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Maximum Daily Precipitation and Recurrence Periods in Yunnan Province

摘要: 本文用云南133个气象站自其建站以来近70年的逐日降水资料，分析了云南省极端最大日雨量的时空分布特征，在此基础上根据耿贝尔I型极值分布模型，对云南省各气象站自其建站以来的极端最大日降水的重现期进行了估算，并分析了不同重现期内各气象站可能出现的极端最大日降水量值。结果表明：云南省极端最大日雨量的空间分布极不均匀，分别在滇西北、滇东北、滇东及滇西南至滇南等地区存在日最大雨量值超过200 mm的分布中心；截止到2017年，云南极端最大日雨量值为250.1 mm (普洱的江城)；近70年来全省暴雨大雨以上量级的强降水频次呈现增长态势，且干季强降水频次的增长尤为明显；不同重现期下云南极端最大日雨量的估算结果显示，局部地区百年一遇的极端最大日雨量值可超过320 mm，且强降水区域呈现扩大趋势。

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data for 133 meteorological stations over Yunnan Province since they were built to 2017, the spatial and temporal distributions of daily maximum precipitation and its recurrence periods, and extreme daily maximum precipitations with different return periods are analyzed by using Gumbel distribution function in the paper. The results show that there spatial distribution of daily maximum precipitation is extremely uneven in Yunnan. And there are several maximum value centers such as the regional Northwest of Yunnan, Northeast Zhaotong, and the south of Yunnan. The extreme maximum of daily precipitation is up to 250.1 mm (such as Jiang-cheng) in the center. The frequency of annual heavy rain increased in most areas in Yunnan province especially during the dry seasons. Extreme maximum values of daily precipitation even exceeded 320 mm in the recurrence period for 200 years in the south of Yunnan.