一种确定k阶趋势曲线参数的新方法

A New Method for Determining Model Parameters of the k-Order Trend Curve

摘要: 在经济、工程、能源、环境领域中，由确定性因素导致的非平稳序列，往往可以用k阶趋势曲线(或称为多项式函数)对数据进行拟合、预测。本文在修正的指数曲线模型参数的求解方法的启发下，提出了一种确定k阶趋势曲线模型参数的方法。相比最小二乘法，本方法的求解过程更为简单、易行。通过教材上的两个具体实例验证了本文提出的方法具有很好的精确度，能够用于对数据的建模、拟合和预测中。

Abstract: In the fields of economy, engineering, energy and environment, non-stationary series caused by deterministic factors can be fitted and predicted by k-order trend curve (or named polynomial function). Inspired by the method of solving the parameters of the modified exponential curve model, this paper proposes a method to determine the parameters of the k-order trend curve model. Compared with the least square method, the modelling process of this new method is simper and easier. Further, two examples in the textbook show that the proposed method has good accuracy and can be used in data modelling, fitting and prediction.