江苏省2005~2015年生态响应度变化研究

Study on the Change of Ecological Responsive Degree in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2015

摘要: 生态响应度是用来表征生态系统演变过程中，人类为阻止其恶化并恢复健康状态而采取的一系列反应的度量。本文基于2005~2015年《江苏统计年鉴》数据，通过经验法确定各评价指标权重，计算各地级市的生态响应度，进而分析其时空变化特征。结果表明，江苏省各地级市2005~2015年生态响应度平均值以南通、徐州、淮安、盐城较大(>6.0)，无锡、镇江、南京较低(<4.0)，其他地级市居中。标准差以扬州最大(2.4)，淮安最低(0.8)，其它均在1.1~1.7之间。镇江、盐城、淮安、宿迁市的生态响应度整体减少或变化较小。其它市呈现不同程度的上升，扬州、徐州、南京上升最快，连云港、常州、泰州较慢，苏州、无锡、南通居中。生态响应度随年度变化的确定性程度最高值为南京。江苏省所有地级市2005~2015年的生态响应度均呈“多峰谷型”年度变化。最高的峰值以镇江、盐城和淮安等3个整体呈下降趋势的地区(均为2007年)，其余市多为2013年。最低谷值以南通、南京、徐州、扬州等生态响应度增长较快的地区(2006~2007年)，其它地区则滞后至2008~2012年。研究结果可为经济快速发展区域的生态环境保护提供参考。

Abstract: Ecological responsive degree (ERD) is a measure of a series of responses taken by human beings to prevent ecosystem deterioration and restore its health in the process of ecosystem deterioration. Based on the data of Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook from 2005 to 2015, this paper determined the weight of each evaluation index by empirical method, calculated the ERDs of cities at all levels, and then analysed their spatial and temporal characteristics. The results showed that the average ERD of cities in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2015 was greater in Nantong, Xuzhou, Huai’an and Yancheng (>6.0), lower in Wuxi, Zhenjiang and Nanjing (<4.0), and middle in other cities. The standard deviation was the greatest in Yangzhou (2.4), the lowest in Huai’an (0.8), and the others were between 1.1 and 1.7. The ERDs of Zhenjiang, Yancheng, Huaian and Suqian decreased or changed slightly as a whole. In other cities, Yangzhou, Xuzhou and Nanjing increased fastest, Lian-yungang, Changzhou and Taizhou were slower, while Suzhou, Wuxi and Nantong were in the middle. The highest determination coefficient of ERD-year linear model was in Nanjing. From 2005 to 2015, the ERD of all city level areas in Jiangsu Province showed a “multi-peak-valley” annual change. The greatest peaks were in Zhenjiang, Yancheng and Huai’an, which showed a downward trend as a whole (all in 2007), while the rest were mostly in 2013. The lowest value was in Nantong, Nanjing, Xuzhou, Yangzhou and other regions where the ERD increased rapidly (2006~2007), while other regions lagged behind to 2008~2012. The results can provide reference for the protection of ecological environment in regions with rapid economic development.