中国昆明近40年太阳辐射变化特征分析

The Variation Characteristics of Solar Radiation in Kunming China in the Past 40 Years

摘要: 本文使用Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析、线性趋势回归等方法，对1970~2011年云南昆明(56778)中国辐射日值数据集的总辐射量中的太阳辐射变化趋势进行了分析。太阳辐射量在近40年间整体呈上升趋势，趋势系数约为12.9 MJ∙m⁻²/a。在1991年之前辐射值呈波动下降趋势，1991年之后呈明显的波动上升趋势，这说明昆明地区的太阳辐射存在先变暗后变亮过程。1991~1994年太阳辐射快速增强，增长率为446.38 MJ∙m⁻²/a。太阳辐射量突变发生在1981年左右，并且辐射量存在以准20年的主周期和准6年的次周期的周期变化。相关结论对深入了解昆明近40年来太阳辐射变化趋势和清洁能源利用有参考价值。

Abstract: Using the Mann-Kendall mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis, correlation analysis, linear trend regression methods, the variations of solar radiation in Kunming from China daily radiation data are analyzed during 1970~2011. The whole tendency of annual change of solar radiation in 41 years is rising, with the trend approximately 12.924 MJ∙m⁻²/a. The periods before 1991, the solar radiation value showed a downward trend, and after that, the solar radiation value showed a clear upward trend, which indicated that the solar radiation experienced from “darkening” to “brightening” process in Kunming. Solar radiation increased rapidly in 1991~1994 at a growth rate of 446.38 MJ∙m⁻²/a. The mutation of solar radiation occurs around 1981, and the mutation of solar radiation occurs around 1981, and the amount of radiation exists in a primary period of 20 years and a subcycle of quasi-6 years. The conclusions are useful for the references of the solar radiation changes’ trends and the utilization of clean energy in Kunming in the past 40 years.