南昌市水资源可持续利用评价研究

Evaluation Research on Water Resources Sustainable Utilization in Nanchang City

摘要: 本文在综合考虑水资源可持续利用主要影响因素的基础上，从水资源、社会、经济和生态环境四个方面选取32个定量指标作为水资源可持续利用评价因素。为了降低层次分析法(AHP)的主观性，采用熵值法修正评价指标初始权重，引入物元理论和主成分分析法对2008~2017年南昌市水资源可持续利用进行综合评价。结果表明，2008、2009年的水资源可持续利用一般，其他年份水资源可持续利用较好；水资源可持续利用评价指数逐年增长，且在2015年和2017年达到水资源可持续利用评价指数的最高值。物元理论、主成分分析法得到的评价结果在逐年变化趋势上基本保持一致，表明这两种方法得到的评价结果具有一定的科学合理性，能够为其他城市的水资源可持续利用评价提供参考。

Abstract: Based on the comprehensive consideration of the main influencing factors of sustainable use of water resources, this paper selects 32 quantitative indicators as the evaluation factors from four aspects: water resources, society, economy and ecological environment. In order to reduce the subjectivity of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the entropy method was used to modify the initial weight of the evaluation index, and the matter-element theory and principal component analysis method were in-troduced to comprehensively evaluate the sustainable utilization of water resources in Nanchang City from 2008 to 2017. The results show that the sustainable use of water resources in 2008 and 2009 is generally good, and the sustainable use of water resources in other years is better; the evaluation index of sustainable use of water resources is increasing year by year, and the evaluation index of sustainable use of water resources is reached in 2015 and 2017 the highest value. The evaluation results obtained by matter-element theory and principal component analysis are basically consistent in the trend of change year by year, which indicates that the evaluation results obtained by these two methods have certain scientific rationality and can provide reference for the sustainable use evaluation of water resources in other cities.