人口高龄化对养老保险统筹账户支付能力的影响

The Impact of Population Aging on the Affordability of the Old-Age Insurance Pooling Account

摘要: 利用中国六次人口普查数据与2018年人口抽查数据，提炼分析中国人口的高龄化特征，在此基础上，对城镇职工养老保险统筹基金收支状况进行分性别群体测算，探究人口高龄化对基金支付能力的影响。研究发现，当前中国人口年龄结构已从老龄化逐步发展为高龄化，这一发展趋势导致统筹基金由“五普”时略有盈余转变为“六普”时的支付赤字。推迟退休年龄有利于促进统筹基金收支平衡，测算结果表明，在2018年中国的人口年龄结构下，男性退休年龄均为62岁时，统筹基金略有盈余，女性则需要推迟至67岁才出现基金盈余。中国在推出养老金改革方案时需要充分考虑人口高龄化进展这一影响。

Abstract: Using China’s six census data and 2018 population sampling data to refine and analyze the aging characteristics of China’s population, on the basis of this, we will measure the income and ex-penditure of urban employee pension insurance pools by sex group and explore the effect of aging population on fund payment ability. The study found that the current age structure of China’s population has gradually evolved from aging to advanced age, and this development trend has led to a shift of the overall fund from a slight surplus in the fifth census to a deficit in the sixth census. Delaying the retirement age is conducive to promoting the balance of income and expenditure of the pooled fund. The calculation results show that under the age structure of China’s population in 2018, when the male retirement age is 62 years old, the overall fund has a slight surplus, and the female needs to postpone until the age of 67. The results of this study can provide a theoretical basis for the government to formulate an extension policy.