引发陡斜坡坡面泥石流的高强度降雨主成份分析

Principal Component of Rain Fall or Heavy Rain Fall Induced Debris Flow of Hillslope on Slope Foundations

摘要: 温州市高强度降雨引发陡斜坡坡面泥石流常造成严重的人员伤亡和经济损失。本文收集了多年来温州市引发陡斜坡坡面泥石流的高强度降雨资料，按最大24 h、6 h、3 h和1 h降雨量进行整理，并采用主成份法对其进行分析研究。结果表明：短历时雨强(1 h、3 h)对陡斜坡坡面泥石流形成贡献最大，前期降雨(6 h、24 h)虽具有一定作用，但在预测时，可不作为主要因素进行考虑。

Abstract: High intensity rains in Wenzhou often lead to serious casualties and economic losses caused by debris flow on steep slopes. In this paper, high-intensity rainfall data of debris flow caused by steep slopes in Wenzhou are collected over the years, divided into groups in terms of the maxi-mum rainfall of 24 h, 6 h, 3 h and 1 h, and analyzed by the principal component method. The re-sults show that short duration rainfall intensity (1 h, 3 h) contributes the most to the formation of debris flow on the steep slopes and that antecedent precipitation (6 h, 24 h) has an effect on the formation, but may not be considered as the main factor in the prediction.