近59年昆明市降水变化特征分析

Analysis of Characteristics of Precipitation Change in Kunming during Recent 59 Years

摘要: 本文利用一元线性回归分析方法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和小波分析对昆明1960~2018年的降水特征进行了分析，研究结果表明：昆明市1960~2018年年降水量、年降水日数大致呈下降的趋势，但年降水量下降趋势不显著，年降水强度、年最大日降水量均大致呈升高的趋势，但两者升高趋势均不显著。近59a，年降水量在1976~1977年间第一次产生突变，在1993~1994年第二次产生突变，在1999年第三次产生突变。年降水日数在1993年开始产生突变。近59a的年降水量演化过程中主要存在着26-30a、16-22a、8-12a、5-7a、3-4a这5类时间尺度的周期变化规律，且第一主周期29a以“降水量少–降水量大–降水量少”为特征。

Abstract: Using monadic linear regression analysis method, Mann Kendall nonparametric test and wavelet analysis on the rainfall characteristics of Kunming in 1960-2018 are analyzed, and the results show that the annual precipitation and annual precipitation days in Kunming from 1960 to 2018 generally showed a downward trend, but the annual precipitation decline trend was not significant. The annual precipitation intensity and the annual maximum daily precipitation were generally increasing, but the trend of increase was not significant. About 59a, the annual precipitation changed for the first time in 1976-1977, for the second time in 1993-1994, and for the third time in 1999. The number of annual precipitation days began to change dramatically in 1993. In the evolution process of annual precipitation of nearly 59a, there are mainly periodic changes in the five time scales of 26-30a, 16-22a, 8-12a, 5-7a and 3-4a, and the first main cycle 29a is characterized by “small-large-small”.