山西垣曲风电场风速变化特征及其与再分析资料的对比

Characteristics of Wind Speed Variation of Shanxi Yuanqu Wind Farm and Comparison with Reanalysis Data

摘要: 本文利用山西垣曲风电场2015.01.08~2017.11.12逐十分钟风速实测风速数据和ERA-Interim和NCEP/DOE逐月再分析资料，根据相关等方法，分析了垣曲风电场风速变化特征，并将实测数据与再分析资料风速进行对比分析，最后给出了影响风速变化可能的主要动力机制。研究结果表明：① 山西垣曲近地面风向以东南风、北风为主，平均风速表现出明显的日、月变化特征，月平均风速最大值出现在冬末(2月份)，最小值出现在夏末秋初，各月平均风速的年变化趋势呈“两峰一谷”型。随着近地面高度的增加，10 m~70 m之间的风速有所增大，但总的变化趋势较为一致，其中，30 m、50 m与70 m的变化趋势基本一致。② 进一步将实测数据与再分析资料进行对比，发现10 m高度上再分析资料风速整体系统性均低于实测风速。其中，NCEP/DOE月平均变化振幅较ERA-Interim更加类似，但ERA-Interim与实测月平均风速更为接近，相关性良好。实测数据和ERA-Interim的风速偏差，均方根误差(RMSE)分别为1.47 m/s、1.57 m/s，而和NCEP/DOE的为2.73 m/s、2.92 m/s。

Abstract: In this paper, the measured wind speed data and ERA-Interim and NCEP/DOE are used to analyze the wind speed data from 2015.01.08-2017.11.12, and the ERA-Interim and NCEP/DOE analyze the data monthly. According to the relevant methods, the wind speed variation characteristics of the wind farm are analyzed. The measured data are compared with the reanalyzed data wind speed, and finally the main dynamic mechanism that affects the wind speed change is given. The results show that: 1) The wind direction near the surface of the Shanxi Distorted is mainly southeast wind and north wind, and the average wind speed shows obvious characteristics of daily and monthly changes. The maximum monthly mean wind speed appears in the end of winter (February), and the minimum value appears at the end of summer and early autumn; the annual trend of average wind speed in each month is “two peaks and one valley”. With the increase of the near-surface height, the wind speed between 10 m and 70 m increases, but the overall trend is more consistent. Among them, the variation trends of 30 m, 50 m and 70 m are basically the same. 2) Further comparing the measured data with the reanalysis data, it is found that the overall systemic wind speed of the reanalyzed data at 10 m height is lower than the measured wind speed. Among them, the average monthly variation amplitude of NCEP/DOE is more similar than that of ERA-Interim, but ERA-Interim is closer to the measured monthly average wind speed and the correlation is good. The measured data and ERA-Interim wind speed deviation, root mean square error (RMSE) are 1.47 m/s, 1.57 m/s, and NCEP/DOE is 2.73 m/s, 2.92 m/s.