GFS预报资料在成都平原地区的适用性研究——以龙泉驿为例

Study on the Applicability of GFS Forecast Data in Chengdu Plain Area—Taking Longquanyi as an Example

摘要: 本文根据2013~2017年成都市龙泉驿洛带镇气象观测资料以及2017年1、4、7、10四个月GFS模式预报资料，分析了成都市龙泉驿地区温度、风场(风速和风向)、相对湿度、绝对湿度以及小时降水量的年、年际、季节和日变化特征，研究了相关气象要素的变化规律，探讨了GFS模式在龙泉驿的预报适用性。结果表明：GFS模式关于温度、湿度、降水的预报能力总体随预报时效增长而减弱；GFS模式降水预报对于降水量大小以及持续性降水的时间范围的可预报性较差；GFS模式在成都平原对短时温度、湿度、降水有一定程度的预报能力，其中对温度、湿度的预报相对较好。

Abstract: Based on the meteorological observation data of Longquanyi Luodai Town in 2013-2017 and the GFS model forecast data for 1, 4, 7 and 10 months in 2017, this paper analyzed the characteristics of temperature, wind field (wind speed and direction), relative humidity, absolute humidity and hourly precipitation, including annual, interannual, seasonal, and diurnal variations. The variation of these meteorological elements is summarized, and the applicability of GFS model in forecasting temperature, humidity and hourly precipitation in Longquanyi is also discussed. The result showed that the correlation between GFS model forecast and observational data decreased with the increase of forecast time. The GFS model precipitation forecast has poor predictability for the magnitude of precipitation and the time range of persistent precipitation. The GFS model has a capacity of forecasting short-time temperature, humidity and precipitation in Chengdu plain, and the capacity of forecasting of temperature and humidity is better than other elements.